Almeria vs Castellón: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Almería
The Footlab AI model makes Almeria the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Castellón. The most likely score is 1-1. If Almeria wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,712 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almeria vs Castellón?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Almeria (2,099) and Castellón (2,106).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Almeria vs Castellón
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Almeria
4-2-3-1- 24Miguel de la Fuente
- 14Javi Muñoz
- 17B. Cipenga
- 11Sergio Arribas
- 29S. Džodić
- 33Quim Junyent
- 18F. Bonini
- 2Marcos Luna
- 3Álex Muñoz
- 5Jorge Pulido
- 1Andrés Fernández
Castellón
4-4-2- 10Israel Suero
- 16A. Jakobsen
- 8Barri
- 18Pablo Santiago
- 6M. Orozco
- 21Álvaro Martín
- 5Alberto Jiménez
- 4A. Sienra
- 22J. Mellot
- 14Iñigo Córdoba
- 13R. Matthys
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 08:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almeria have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Castellón have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Oviedo(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 4-2 | Segunda División |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Burgos(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 11, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Almeria wins, 1 draw, 3 Castellón wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Almeria 3-2 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Castellón 1-1 Almeria | Segunda División |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Castellón 2-0 Almeria | Segunda División |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Almeria 1-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Castellón 4-1 Almeria | Segunda División |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Almeria 2-5 Castellón | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Almeria score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Castellón score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria | 1.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Castellón | 1.7 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Almeria sit 2nd in Segunda División (25 points from 11 matches) and Castellón sit 1st (26 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 26 |
| 2 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 25 |
A question about Almeria vs Castellón?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almeria vs Castellón?
- The Footlab AI model makes Almeria the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Castellón.
- Where and when is Almeria vs Castellón played?
- Almeria vs Castellón is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.