Almeria vs Castellón: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Almería
The Footlab model makes Almeria the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Castellón. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almeria vs Castellón?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Almeria (2,027) and Castellón (2,015).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almeria have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Castellón have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tenerife(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cordoba(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al-Nassr(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hércules(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Almeria win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Castellón win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Almeria 3-2 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Castellón 1-1 Almeria | Segunda División |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Castellón 2-0 Almeria | Segunda División |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Almeria 1-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Castellón 4-1 Almeria | Segunda División |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Almeria 2-5 Castellón | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Almeria score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Castellón score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Castellón | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Almeria sit 9th in Segunda División (3 points from 2 matches) and Castellón sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Castellón | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Almeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almeria vs Castellón?
- The Footlab model makes Almeria the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Castellón.
- Where and when is Almeria vs Castellón played?
- Almeria vs Castellón is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.