Alverca vs FC Porto: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo
The Footlab model makes FC Porto the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Alverca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alverca vs FC Porto?
FC Porto is a heavy favourite: 2,356 Elo points against 2,023, a 333-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alverca have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; FC Porto have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Alverca win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 FC Porto win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Porto 2-0 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| May 2, 2026 | FC Porto 1-0 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Alverca 0-3 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Alverca score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FC Porto score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| FC Porto | 1.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alverca sit 17th in Primeira Liga (1 points from 3 matches) and FC Porto sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alverca vs FC Porto?
- The Footlab model makes FC Porto the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Alverca.
- Where and when is Alverca vs FC Porto played?
- Alverca vs FC Porto is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.