Sporting CP vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Estrela. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Estrela?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,484 Elo points against 2,045, a 439-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sporting CP vs Estrela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sporting CP
4-3-3- 10Geny Catamo
- 19N. Irankunda
- 97L. Suárez
- 5Sergi Altimira
- 77I. Doumbia
- 4S. Andersen
- 25Gonçalo Inácio
- 22Iván Fresneda
- 20M. Araújo
- 72Eduardo Quaresma
- 1Rui Silva
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 05:25 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting CP have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Estrela have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Sporting CP wins, 1 draw, 0 Estrela wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estrela 2-2 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Estrela 0-1 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Sporting CP 4-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Estrela 0-3 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Sporting CP 5-1 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Estrela 1-2 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Estrela vs Sporting CP on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting CP score 2.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 2.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting CP sit 3rd in Primeira Liga (18 points from 8 matches) and Estrela sit 10th (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 18 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
A question about Sporting CP vs Estrela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting CP vs Estrela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Sporting CP vs Estrela played?
- Sporting CP vs Estrela is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Alvalade, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.