Estrela vs Alverca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora
The Footlab AI model makes Alverca the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Estrela. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alverca wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrela vs Alverca?
Alverca starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (2,147 vs 2,045).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estrela vs Alverca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Alverca
3-4-3- 22Figueiredo
- 10Chiquinho
- 19D. Camara
- 55Francisco Chissumba
- 6D. Gui
- 35Rayan
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
- 12I. James
- 21Sergi Gómez
- 14S. Baseya
- 31Matheus Mendes
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:15 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrela have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Alverca have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Estrela wins, 3 draws, 0 Alverca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alverca 2-2 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Alverca 1-1 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Estrela 2-2 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Alverca score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Alverca | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estrela sit 10th in Primeira Liga (10 points from 8 matches) and Alverca sit 8th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
A question about Estrela vs Alverca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrela vs Alverca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alverca the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Estrela vs Alverca played?
- Estrela vs Alverca is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.