Nacional vs Santa Clara: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1. If Santa Clara wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,867 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs Santa Clara?
Santa Clara starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (2,137 vs 1,969).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nacional vs Santa Clara
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nacional
4-2-3-1- 29N. Kader
- 12Song Min-Kyu
- 15C. Labidi
- 20Matchoi Djaló
- 31D. Dongmo
- 10Daniel Júnior
- 21W. Kokolo
- 38Zé Vitor
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 88Deivison
- 1Renato Bellucci
Santa Clara
4-3-3- 9Gonçalo Paciência
- 70Vinícius Lopes
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
- 6Pedro Ferreira
- 8José Luís Rocha Tavares
- 20Tiago Ribeiro
- 5Guilherme Romão
- 4Pedro Pacheco
- 21Emanuel Fernandes
- 42Lucas Soares
- 1Lucas França
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 06:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Santa Clara have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nacional wins, 2 draws, 2 Santa Clara wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara 2-2 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2026 | Santa Clara 2-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Nacional 3-3 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Santa Clara 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Nacional 2-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Santa Clara 0-1 Nacional | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: Santa Clara vs Nacional on Aug 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.0 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Clara score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Santa Clara | 1.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 16th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Santa Clara sit 4th (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 4 |
A question about Nacional vs Santa Clara?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs Santa Clara?
- The Footlab AI model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Nacional vs Santa Clara played?
- Nacional vs Santa Clara is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.