America Mineiro vs Avai: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 38Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Avai the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for America Mineiro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win America Mineiro vs Avai?
Avai starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,837 vs 1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, America Mineiro have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Avai have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Sport Recife(away) | 0-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Novorizontino(away) | 0-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 America Mineiro win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Avai win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Avai 2-1 America Mineiro | Serie B |
| Sep 2, 2025 | America Mineiro 2-0 Avai | Serie B |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Avai 3-0 America Mineiro | Serie B |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Avai 2-2 America Mineiro | Serie B |
| Jun 26, 2024 | America Mineiro 1-1 Avai | Serie B |
| Jul 31, 2022 | America Mineiro 3-1 Avai | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Avai vs America Mineiro on Jul 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
America Mineiro score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Avai score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Avai | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
America Mineiro sit 19th in Serie B (11 points from 24 matches) and Avai sit 16th (29 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Avai | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 42 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for America Mineiro vs Avai?
- The Footlab model makes Avai the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for America Mineiro.
- Where and when is America Mineiro vs Avai played?
- America Mineiro vs Avai is played on November 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.