Criciuma vs Novorizontino: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 38Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciúma, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Criciuma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Criciuma vs Novorizontino?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Criciuma (1,907) and Novorizontino (1,943).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Criciuma have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Novorizontino have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Londrina(away) | 4-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Criciuma win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Novorizontino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Novorizontino 0-1 Criciuma | Serie B |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Criciuma 2-0 Novorizontino | Serie B |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Novorizontino 1-1 Criciuma | Serie B |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Novorizontino 2-0 Criciuma | Serie B |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Criciuma 0-1 Novorizontino | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Novorizontino 3-1 Criciuma | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Novorizontino vs Criciuma on Jul 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Criciuma score 1.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Novorizontino score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Novorizontino | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Criciuma sit 1st in Serie B (44 points from 24 matches) and Novorizontino sit 5th (37 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 44 |
| 5 | Novorizontino | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 20 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Criciuma vs Novorizontino?
- The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Criciuma.
- Where and when is Criciuma vs Novorizontino played?
- Criciuma vs Novorizontino is played on November 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.