Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica: prediction and stats
Primera BRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Antofagasta
The Footlab model makes Antofagasta the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for San Marcos de Arica. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica?
Antofagasta starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,738 vs 1,633).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Antofagasta have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; San Marcos de Arica have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Deportes Temuco(home) | 3-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Deportes Iquique(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Santiago Wanderers(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Union Espanola(away) | 3-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Union San Felipe(home) | 5-1 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rangers de Talca(home) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Union Espanola(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Union San Felipe(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Santiago Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(away) | 0-1 | Copa Chile |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Antofagasta win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 San Marcos de Arica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | San Marcos de Arica 1-1 Antofagasta | Primera B |
| Aug 31, 2025 | San Marcos de Arica 0-0 Antofagasta | Primera B |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Antofagasta 2-3 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2024 | San Marcos de Arica 1-1 Antofagasta | Primera B |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Antofagasta 2-1 San Marcos de Arica | Primera B |
| Oct 9, 2023 | San Marcos de Arica 4-3 Antofagasta | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: San Marcos de Arica vs Antofagasta on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Antofagasta score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; San Marcos de Arica score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antofagasta | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| San Marcos de Arica | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Antofagasta sit 4th in Primera B (34 points from 21 matches) and San Marcos de Arica sit 8th (30 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Antofagasta | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 22 | 34 |
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica?
- The Footlab model makes Antofagasta the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for San Marcos de Arica.
- Where and when is Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica played?
- Antofagasta vs San Marcos de Arica is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.