Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Arena Arda, Kardzhali
The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Arda Kardzhali (1,869) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1,794).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arda Kardzhali have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arda Kardzhali win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 Arda Kardzhali | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali 4-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| May 8, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Arda Kardzhali | Cup |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali 0-4 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali on Aug 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arda Kardzhali score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arda Kardzhali sit 5th in First League (13 points from 6 matches) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 12th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
- The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- Where and when is Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv played?
- Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv is played on February 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Arda, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.