Dunav Ruse vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Gradski Stadion, Rousse
The Footlab model makes Dunav Ruse the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dunav Ruse vs Cherno More Varna?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Dunav Ruse (1,731) and Cherno More Varna (1,783).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dunav Ruse have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Cherno More Varna have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Dunav Ruse win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Cherno More Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 3-1 Dunav Ruse | First League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 2-1 Dunav Ruse | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 10, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 4-0 Dunav Ruse | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 7, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 0-0 Dunav Ruse | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 5, 2023 | Dunav Ruse 2-1 Cherno More Varna | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 1, 2023 | Cherno More Varna 2-1 Dunav Ruse | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse on Aug 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dunav Ruse score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunav Ruse | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dunav Ruse sit 13th in First League (3 points from 6 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 10th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dunav Ruse vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Dunav Ruse the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is Dunav Ruse vs Cherno More Varna played?
- Dunav Ruse vs Cherno More Varna is played on February 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski Stadion, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.