Where and when is Arenas Armilla vs Málaga II played?

Arenas Armilla vs Málaga II is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arenas Armilla vs Málaga II: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 28Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal, Armilla

Arenas Armilla

Málaga II

The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Málaga II. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arenas Armilla vs Málaga II?

A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Arenas Armilla (1,787) and Málaga II (1,779).

Arenas Armilla win48 %

Draw29 %

Málaga II win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Armilla have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Málaga II have 3, 3 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arenas Armilla
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jun 20, 2026	Peña Deportiva(away)	2-5	Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs
Jun 14, 2026	Peña Deportiva(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs
Jun 7, 2026	Motril(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 31, 2026	Motril(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 24, 2026	Torre del Mar(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Málaga II
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Melilla(home)	3-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 26, 2026	Puente Genil(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 18, 2026	Antoniano(home)	3-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 12, 2026	Ucam Murcia(away)	0-4	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 4, 2026	Real Jaén(home)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arenas Armilla win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Málaga II win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 26, 2025	Arenas Armilla 3-2 Málaga II	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 15, 2024	Málaga II 3-2 Arenas Armilla	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 1, 2024	Arenas Armilla 0-1 Málaga II	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Dec 17, 2023	Málaga II 1-0 Arenas Armilla	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Feb 5, 2023	Málaga II 2-0 Arenas Armilla	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Oct 9, 2022	Arenas Armilla 2-1 Málaga II	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last archived meeting: Arenas Armilla vs Málaga II on Jan 26, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Málaga II score 1.3 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arenas Armilla	1.1	1.4	3	8/15	5/15
Málaga II	1.3	2.3	0	13/15	13/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Arenas Armilla	34	15	9	10	38	29	54

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arenas Armilla vs Málaga II?: The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Málaga II.
Where and when is Arenas Armilla vs Málaga II played?: Arenas Armilla vs Málaga II is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.