Aretxabaleta vs Beasain: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta)
The Footlab model makes Beasain the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Beasain?
Beasain starts as the favourite with a 187-point Elo edge (1,878 vs 1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aretxabaleta have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Beasain have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Zamudio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Pasaia KE(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Touring(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Zaragoza II(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Náxara(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ebro(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Aretxabaleta win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Beasain win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | Beasain 1-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 2-1 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Beasain vs Aretxabaleta on Mar 1, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Aretxabaleta score 2.0 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Beasain score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
| Beasain | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56 | 61 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aretxabaleta vs Beasain?
- The Footlab model makes Beasain the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is Aretxabaleta vs Beasain played?
- Aretxabaleta vs Beasain is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.