San Ignacio vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 2Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos, Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes San Ignacio the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Derio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Ignacio vs Derio?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate San Ignacio (1,771) and Derio (1,781).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Ignacio have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Derio have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | La Calzada(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 24, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 San Ignacio win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Derio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | San Ignacio 1-2 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Derio 1-0 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2025 | San Ignacio 3-3 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Derio 1-0 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 10, 2024 | San Ignacio 1-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Derio 0-1 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
San Ignacio score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Ignacio | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Derio | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Ignacio sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (55 points from 34 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (58 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 40 | 58 |
| 7 | San Ignacio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 37 | 27 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Ignacio vs Derio?
- The Footlab model makes San Ignacio the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Derio.
- Where and when is San Ignacio vs Derio played?
- San Ignacio vs Derio is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.