Leioa vs Pasaia KE: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sarriena, Leioa
The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leioa vs Pasaia KE?
Leioa starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (1,837 vs 1,627).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leioa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Pasaia KE have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-11 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Añorga(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Leioa win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Pasaia KE win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Pasaia KE 1-3 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Leioa 0-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Pasaia KE 1-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Leioa 5-2 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Pasaia KE 1-2 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Leioa 3-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Leioa score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pasaia KE score 0.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leioa | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Pasaia KE | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leioa sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (61 points from 34 matches) and Pasaia KE sit 14th (36 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 61 |
| 14 | Pasaia KE | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 46 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leioa vs Pasaia KE?
- The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Leioa vs Pasaia KE played?
- Leioa vs Pasaia KE is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sarriena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.