Derio vs Aretxabaleta: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 21Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, Derio
The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derio wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derio vs Aretxabaleta?
On Elo ratings, Derio has 1,804 points and Aretxabaleta 1,727.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derio vs Aretxabaleta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derio have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Aretxabaleta have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 5 Derio wins, 0 draws, 0 Aretxabaleta wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta 1-2 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Aretxabaleta 1-2 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Derio 1-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Derio 2-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 0-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Aretxabaleta vs Derio on Sep 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derio sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (12 points from 6 matches) and Aretxabaleta sit 5th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
A question about Derio vs Aretxabaleta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derio vs Aretxabaleta?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is Derio vs Aretxabaleta played?
- Derio vs Aretxabaleta is played on February 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.