Match

Armenia vs Cyprus: prediction and stats

UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 12, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, Yerevan

ArmeniaCyprus

The Footlab model makes Armenia the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Cyprus. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Armenia vs Cyprus?

A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Armenia (1,346) and Cyprus (1,301).

Armenia win42 %
Draw27 %
Cyprus win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Armenia have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Cyprus have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Armenia
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Jun 9, 2026Moldova(home)1-1Friendlies
Jun 6, 2026Kazakhstan(home)1-1Friendlies
Mar 29, 2026Belarus(home)1-2Friendlies
Nov 16, 2025Portugal(away)1-9World Cup - Qualification Europe
Nov 13, 2025Hungary(home)0-1World Cup - Qualification Europe
Cyprus
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Jun 7, 2026Liechtenstein(away)2-0Friendlies
Jun 4, 2026Slovenia(away)1-1Friendlies
Mar 30, 2026Moldova(home)3-2Friendlies
Mar 26, 2026Belarus(home)0-1Friendlies
Nov 18, 2025Estonia(home)2-4Friendlies

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Armenia win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Cyprus win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 28, 2023Armenia 2-2 CyprusFriendlies
Nov 13, 2017Armenia 3-2 CyprusFriendlies

Last archived meeting: Armenia vs Cyprus on Mar 28, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Armenia score 0.9 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cyprus score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Armenia0.92.709/159/15
Cyprus1.51.738/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Armenia vs Cyprus?
The Footlab model makes Armenia the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Cyprus.
Where and when is Armenia vs Cyprus played?
Armenia vs Cyprus is played on November 12, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, in the UEFA Nations League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Armenia and Cyprus

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