Luxembourg vs Estonia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stade de Luxembourg, Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg)
The Footlab AI model makes Estonia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Luxembourg. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estonia wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Luxembourg vs Estonia?
A very open match: only 1 Elo point separates Luxembourg (1,371) and Estonia (1,370).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Luxembourg vs Estonia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Luxembourg
4-2-3-1- 9Jayson Videira Pereira
- 11V. Thill
- 6J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
- 17H. Kadamani
- 8E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos
- 15Omar Natami
- 13D. Carlson
- 4F. Bohnert
- 5V. Selimović
- 3E. Mahmutović
- 1A. Moris
Estonia
5-3-2- 14P. Kristal
- 17M. Männilaan
- 20M. Poom
- 10K. Palumets
- 4M. Käit
- 3M. Paskotši
- 2M. Kuusk
- 6R. Peetson
- 19M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 18K. Mets
- 12M. Igonen
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Luxembourg have 4 wins, 1 draw and 10 defeats; Estonia have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Bulgaria(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Estonia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Iceland(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bulgaria(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Iceland(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Luxembourg(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Bulgaria(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Iceland(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania(home) | 1-0 | Baltic Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Luxembourg wins, 0 draws, 1 Estonia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Luxembourg score 0.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Estonia score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 0.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 2/15 | 5/15 |
| Estonia | 0.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Luxembourg sit 4th in UEFA Nations League (3 points from 4 matches) and Estonia sit 2nd (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
A question about Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Luxembourg vs Estonia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estonia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Luxembourg.
- Where and when is Luxembourg vs Estonia played?
- Luxembourg vs Estonia is played on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stade de Luxembourg, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.