Bulgaria vs Iceland: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
The Footlab model makes Bulgaria the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Iceland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bulgaria vs Iceland?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Bulgaria (1,427) and Iceland (1,469).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bulgaria have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Iceland have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Montenegro(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Indonesia(away) | 1-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Solomon Islands(away) | 10-2 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Georgia(home) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Haiti(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Canada(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Bulgaria score 1.4 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Iceland score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Iceland | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bulgaria vs Iceland?
- The Footlab model makes Bulgaria the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Iceland.
- Where and when is Bulgaria vs Iceland played?
- Bulgaria vs Iceland is played on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion Hristo Botev, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.