San Marino vs Belarus: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, Serravalle
The Footlab AI model makes Belarus the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for San Marino. The most likely score is 1-1. If Belarus wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Marino vs Belarus?
Belarus is a heavy favourite: 1,430 Elo points against 1,042, a 388-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for San Marino vs Belarus
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
San Marino
4-4-2- 11N. Giacopetti
- 9N. Nanni
- 8L. Capicchioni
- 21L. Lazzari
- 17A. Golinucci
- 19S. Pancotti
- 5M. Cevoli
- 3S. Giocondi
- 6D. Rossi
- 2G. Benvenuti
- 1E. Colombo
Belarus
4-2-3-1- 11G. Barkovskiy
- 9M. Ebong
- 8A. Selyava
- 7A. Shumanskiy
- 19A. Lukashov
- 10V. Gromyko
- 20Z. Volkov
- 2K. Pechenin
- 13K. Gomanov
- 5V. Kalinin
- 21F. Lapoukhov
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Marino have 0 wins, 1 draw and 14 defeats; Belarus have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Albania(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Belarus(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Albania(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Finland(home) | 0-7 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Finland(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | San Marino(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Finland(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Albania(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Burkina Faso(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 San Marino wins, 0 draws, 3 Belarus wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Belarus 4-0 San Marino | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 18, 2018 | San Marino 0-2 Belarus | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 8, 2018 | Belarus 5-0 San Marino | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
San Marino score 0.4 and concede 3.8 goals per match over their last 15; Belarus score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino | 0.4 | 3.8 | 1 | 6/15 | 13/15 |
| Belarus | 1.3 | 1.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Marino sit 4th in UEFA Nations League (0 points from 4 matches) and Belarus sit 2nd (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
A question about San Marino vs Belarus?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Marino vs Belarus?
- The Footlab AI model makes Belarus the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for San Marino.
- Where and when is San Marino vs Belarus played?
- San Marino vs Belarus is played on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.