Albania vs Finland: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Arena Kombëtare, Tiranë (Tirana)
The Footlab AI model makes Albania the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Finland. The most likely score is 1-1. If Albania wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,825 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Albania vs Finland?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Albania (1,515) and Finland (1,475).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Albania vs Finland
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Albania
4-3-3- 7R. Manaj
- 10E. Muçi
- 21A. Hoxha
- 8K. Asllani
- 22S. Pilios
- 16J. Shehu
- 6B. Djimsiti
- 18A. Ismajli
- 3M. Mitaj
- 4E. Hysaj
- 1E. Berisha
Finland
4-3-3- 9A. Svanbäck
- 18T. Keskinen
- 20J. Pohjanpalo
- 10L. Walta
- 11A. Marhiev
- 14K. Kairinen
- 13J. Lähteenmäki
- 5S. Miettinen
- 4T. Miettinen
- 3A. Ståhl
- 1L. Hrádecký
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 03:28 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Albania have 8 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats; Finland have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | San Marino(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Finland(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | San Marino(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Belarus(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Luxembourg(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Belarus(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Albania(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Belarus(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | San Marino(away) | 7-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Albania wins, 0 draws, 1 Finland win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Finland 2-1 Albania | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Albania score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Finland score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 1.2 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Finland | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Albania sit 1st in UEFA Nations League (9 points from 4 matches) and Finland sit 3rd (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 |
A question about Albania vs Finland?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Albania vs Finland?
- The Footlab AI model makes Albania the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Finland.
- Where and when is Albania vs Finland played?
- Albania vs Finland is played on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Arena Kombëtare, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.