Moldova vs Kazakhstan: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stadionul Zimbru, Chişinău
The Footlab model makes Moldova the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Kazakhstan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
Kazakhstan starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,398 vs 1,290).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moldova have 0 wins, 4 draws and 11 defeats; Kazakhstan have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bulgaria(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cyprus(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Lithuania(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Israel(away) | 1-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Comoros(home) | 1-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Namibia(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Faroe Islands(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Moldova win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Kazakhstan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | Kazakhstan 0-1 Moldova | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 24, 2022 | Moldova 1-2 Kazakhstan | UEFA Nations League |
| Feb 21, 2019 | Kazakhstan 1-0 Moldova | Friendlies |
Last archived meeting: Kazakhstan vs Moldova on Mar 29, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Moldova score 0.8 and concede 3.0 goals per match over their last 15; Kazakhstan score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 0.8 | 3.0 | 0 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Kazakhstan | 1.1 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
- The Footlab model makes Moldova the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Kazakhstan.
- Where and when is Moldova vs Kazakhstan played?
- Moldova vs Kazakhstan is played on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Zimbru, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.