Moldova vs Kazakhstan: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stadionul Zimbru, Chişinău
The Footlab AI model makes Kazakhstan the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Moldova. The most likely score is 1-1. If Kazakhstan wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Moldova (1,291) and Kazakhstan (1,377).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Moldova vs Kazakhstan
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Moldova
5-3-2- 15Petru Popescu
- 20N. Cleșcenco
- 22V. Raţă
- 9S. Perciun
- 14Vladimir Fratea
- 4V. Baboglo
- 6M. Gherasimencov
- 2O. Reabciuk
- 18I. Iovu
- 21I. Revenco
- 12D. Celeadnic
Kazakhstan
4-2-3-1- 19R. Karimov
- 9B. Islamkhan
- 5I. Kuat
- 18D. Karaman
- 13S. Basmanov
- 7G. Kenzhebek
- 3N. Alip
- 23T. Erlanov
- 14N. Zhagorov
- 11Y. Vorogovskiy
- 12T. Anarbekov
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moldova have 1 win, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Kazakhstan have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Slovakia(home) | 0-4 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Kazakhstan(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Slovakia(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Moldova(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Slovakia(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Faroe Islands(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Moldova wins, 0 draws, 2 Kazakhstan wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Kazakhstan 1-2 Moldova | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Kazakhstan 0-1 Moldova | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 24, 2022 | Moldova 1-2 Kazakhstan | UEFA Nations League |
| Feb 21, 2019 | Kazakhstan 1-0 Moldova | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Moldova score 0.8 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Kazakhstan score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 0.8 | 2.8 | 0 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Kazakhstan | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moldova sit 3rd in UEFA Nations League (4 points from 4 matches) and Kazakhstan sit 4th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
A question about Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
- The Footlab AI model makes Kazakhstan the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Moldova.
- Where and when is Moldova vs Kazakhstan played?
- Moldova vs Kazakhstan is played on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Zimbru, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.