Montenegro vs Latvia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)TBC (Montenegro), TBC
The Footlab AI model makes Montenegro the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Latvia. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,757 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montenegro vs Latvia?
Montenegro starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,435 vs 1,282).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Montenegro vs Latvia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Montenegro
4-3-3- 20M. Osmajić
- 9N. Krstović
- 10S. Jovetić
- 8M. Janković
- 17Vasilije Adžić
- 21A. Bulatović
- 2M. Roganović
- 15S. Savić
- 16O. Gašević
- 4A. Đurić
- 1B. Popović
Latvia
5-4-1- 9V. Gutkovskis
- 10L. Vapne
- 15D. Zelenkovs
- 7E. Dašķevičs
- 17M. Strods
- 14A. Cigaņiks
- 21D. Meļņiks
- 4O. Vientiess
- 5A. Černomordijs
- 3D. Cirkin
- 23R. Matrevics
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 07:26 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montenegro have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Latvia have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Armenia(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Latvia(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Cyprus(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Cyprus(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Montenegro(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Cyprus(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 0-1 | Baltic Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Montenegro wins, 2 draws, 0 Latvia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Latvia 1-2 Montenegro | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 7, 2021 | Montenegro 0-0 Latvia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 24, 2021 | Latvia 1-2 Montenegro | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Montenegro 1-1 Latvia | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Montenegro score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Latvia score 0.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Latvia | 0.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montenegro sit 1st in UEFA Nations League (10 points from 4 matches) and Latvia sit 4th (1 point from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
A question about Montenegro vs Latvia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montenegro vs Latvia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Montenegro the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Latvia.
- Where and when is Montenegro vs Latvia played?
- Montenegro vs Latvia is played on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at TBC (Montenegro), in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.