Nacional vs FC Porto: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab model makes FC Porto the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs FC Porto?
FC Porto is a heavy favourite: 2,356 Elo points against 1,982, a 374-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; FC Porto have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Nacional win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 FC Porto win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Nacional 0-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | FC Porto 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| May 17, 2025 | FC Porto 3-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Nacional 2-0 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 13, 2024 | FC Porto 4-1 Nacional | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2021 | Nacional 0-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; FC Porto score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| FC Porto | 1.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 8th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and FC Porto sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs FC Porto?
- The Footlab model makes FC Porto the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Nacional vs FC Porto played?
- Nacional vs FC Porto is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.