Arouca vs SC Braga: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab model makes SC Braga the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs SC Braga?
SC Braga starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (2,254 vs 2,059).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; SC Braga have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Austria Vienna(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Železničar Pančevo(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Arouca win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 SC Braga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | SC Braga 1-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Arouca 0-4 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | SC Braga 2-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Arouca 1-2 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 6, 2024 | SC Braga 0-3 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Arouca 0-1 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; SC Braga score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| SC Braga | 1.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (6 points from 3 matches) and SC Braga sit 13th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs SC Braga?
- The Footlab model makes SC Braga the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Arouca vs SC Braga played?
- Arouca vs SC Braga is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.