Casa Pia vs Rio Ave: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras
The Footlab AI model makes Casa Pia the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 1-1. If Casa Pia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,800 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Rio Ave?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Casa Pia (1,998) and Rio Ave (2,040).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Casa Pia vs Rio Ave
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 80L. Ofori
- 16Silvi
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 77B. Pauwels
- 18Geraldes
- 43David Sousa
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 3Kaly
- 95Ivan Mandić
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 54G. Liavas
- 80S. Clemmensen
- 20João Tomé
- 39Gustavo Mancha
- 17M. Vrousai
- 23F. Petrasso
- 32Vitor Hugo
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 07:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casa Pia have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Rio Ave have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Louletano(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Casa Pia win, 2 draws, 3 Rio Ave wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Casa Pia 1-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Rio Ave 3-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Casa Pia 2-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-3 Rio Ave | Taça de Portugal |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Rio Ave 2-2 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rio Ave score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Rio Ave | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casa Pia sit 17th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Rio Ave sit 14th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 4 |
A question about Casa Pia vs Rio Ave?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Rio Ave?
- The Footlab AI model makes Casa Pia the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Casa Pia vs Rio Ave played?
- Casa Pia vs Rio Ave is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.