Maritimo vs Sporting CP: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Maritimo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,393 Elo points against 1,995 — a 398-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maritimo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Sporting CP have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Maritimo win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Sporting CP win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2023 | Sporting CP 2-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Maritimo 1-0 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 13, 2022 | Sporting CP 5-0 Maritimo | Taça da Liga |
| Feb 26, 2022 | Maritimo 1-1 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 24, 2021 | Sporting CP 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| May 19, 2021 | Sporting CP 5-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Maritimo on May 13, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Maritimo score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting CP score 2.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Sporting CP | 2.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maritimo sit 4th in Primeira Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Sporting CP sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Maritimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maritimo vs Sporting CP?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Maritimo.
- Where and when is Maritimo vs Sporting CP played?
- Maritimo vs Sporting CP is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Marítimo, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.