Benfica vs Nacional: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 78%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Nacional. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs Nacional?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,358 Elo points against 1,982 — a 375-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Nacional have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aarhus(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 7-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Benfica win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Nacional win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Benfica 2-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Nacional 1-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Benfica 3-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 19, 2024 | Nacional 0-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2021 | Nacional 1-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 25, 2021 | Benfica 1-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica sit 7th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Nacional sit 8th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Nacional?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 78%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Benfica vs Nacional played?
- Benfica vs Nacional is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.