Arsenal vs Baranovichi: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Haradski, Dzerzhinsk
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Baranovichi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Baranovichi?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Arsenal (1,537) and Baranovichi (1,571).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Baranovichi have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Belshina(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Slavia Mozyr(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Naftan(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Minsk(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Neman(home) | 2-3 | Coppa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dinamo Brest(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | ML Vitebsk(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bate Borisov(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Isloch Minsk R.(home) | 3-4 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Isloch Minsk R.(away) | 1-1 | Coppa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arsenal win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Baranovichi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Baranovichi 1-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Arsenal 0-4 Baranovichi | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Arsenal 3-0 Baranovichi | 1. Division |
| Jun 24, 2023 | Baranovichi 2-2 Arsenal | 1. Division |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Arsenal 2-0 Baranovichi | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2021 | Baranovichi 1-2 Arsenal | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: Baranovichi vs Arsenal on May 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 0.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Baranovichi score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Baranovichi | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1 | 12/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 11th in Premier League (21 points from 19 matches) and Baranovichi sit 12th (18 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Arsenal | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 21 |
| 12 | Baranovichi | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 35 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Baranovichi?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Baranovichi.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Baranovichi played?
- Arsenal vs Baranovichi is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Haradski, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.