Bate Borisov vs Naftan: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Borisov Arena, Borisov
The Footlab model makes Bate Borisov the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Naftan. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bate Borisov vs Naftan?
Bate Borisov starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (1,646 vs 1,463).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bate Borisov have 2 wins, 9 draws and 4 defeats; Naftan have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ML Vitebsk(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Vitebsk(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baranovichi(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FC Sion(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Neman(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Gomel(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | FC Dnepr Mogilev(away) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Orsha(away) | 2-2 | Coppa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bate Borisov win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Naftan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Naftan 0-0 Bate Borisov | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Bate Borisov 5-0 Naftan | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Naftan 3-4 Bate Borisov | Coppa |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Naftan 2-2 Bate Borisov | Premier League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Bate Borisov 4-0 Naftan | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Bate Borisov 1-1 Naftan | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Naftan vs Bate Borisov on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bate Borisov score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Naftan score 1.1 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bate Borisov | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Naftan | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bate Borisov sit 14th in Premier League (14 points from 17 matches) and Naftan sit 16th (10 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 14 |
| 16 | Naftan | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 42 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bate Borisov vs Naftan?
- The Footlab model makes Bate Borisov the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Naftan.
- Where and when is Bate Borisov vs Naftan played?
- Bate Borisov vs Naftan is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Borisov Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.