Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 5Kick-off on November 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Emirates Stadium, London
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Borussia Dortmund. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arsenal wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 5,327 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
On Elo ratings, Arsenal has 2,352 points and Borussia Dortmund 2,329.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 14V. Gyökeres
- 41D. Rice
- 20N. Madueke
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 10E. Eze
- 39Bruno Guimarães
- 15E. Konsa
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 12J. Timber
- 4B. White
- 1David Raya
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1- 9S. Guirassy
- 25Joey Veerman
- 8F. Nmecha
- 24D. Svensson
- 7J. Bellingham
- 21Fábio Silva
- 26J. Ryerson
- 3W. Anton
- 4N. Schlotterbeck
- 5R. Bensebaïni
- 1G. Kobel
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 12:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat; Borussia Dortmund have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Slavia Praha(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Everton(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | SV Elversberg(home) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Werder Bremen(home) | 3-2 | DFB Pokal |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arsenal wins, 0 draws, 3 Borussia Dortmund wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Arsenal 2-3 Borussia Dortmund | Emirates Cup |
| Nov 26, 2014 | Arsenal 2-0 Borussia Dortmund | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 16, 2014 | Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 6, 2013 | Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 22, 2013 | Arsenal 1-2 Borussia Dortmund | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 23, 2011 | Arsenal 2-1 Borussia Dortmund | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 3rd in UEFA Champions League (10 points from 4 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 12th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Arsenal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
A question about Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Borussia Dortmund.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund played?
- Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund is played on November 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Emirates Stadium, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.