Arys vs Aktobe Jas: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 23Kick-off on September 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Turkistan Arena, Turkistan
The Footlab model makes Arys the favourite at 47%, against 21% for a draw and 32% for Aktobe Jas. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arys vs Aktobe Jas?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Arys (1,173) and Aktobe Jas (1,148).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arys have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Aktobe Jas have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Taraz(home) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Khan Tengri(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Tobol 2(home) | 3-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Astana II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(away) | 1-4 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Yelimay Semey 2(away) | 5-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(home) | 1-6 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ekibastuz(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(away) | 1-6 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Sport Academy Kairat(home) | 0-4 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Arys win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Aktobe Jas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Aktobe Jas 3-1 Arys | 1. Division |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Aktobe Jas 0-1 Arys | 1. Division |
| May 3, 2024 | Arys 2-3 Aktobe Jas | 1. Division |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Arys 2-1 Aktobe Jas | 1. Division |
| Jun 30, 2023 | Aktobe Jas 5-1 Arys | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Arys score 1.1 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Aktobe Jas score 1.9 and concede 3.3. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arys | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Aktobe Jas | 1.9 | 3.3 | 0 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arys sit 12th in 1. Division (15 points from 19 matches) and Aktobe Jas sit 11th (20 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aktobe Jas | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 60 | 20 |
| 12 | Arys | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 39 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arys vs Aktobe Jas?
- The Footlab model makes Arys the favourite at 47%, against 21% for a draw and 32% for Aktobe Jas.
- Where and when is Arys vs Aktobe Jas played?
- Arys vs Aktobe Jas is played on September 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Turkistan Arena, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.