Tobol 2 vs Kaspij Aktau 2: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 23Kick-off on September 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Kaspij Aktau 2 the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Tobol 2. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tobol 2 vs Kaspij Aktau 2?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Tobol 2 (1,235) and Kaspij Aktau 2 (1,333).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tobol 2 have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Kaspij Aktau 2 have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Khan Tengri(home) | 3-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Astana II(away) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arys(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Turan Turkistan(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Jaiyq(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Yelimay Semey 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(away) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Aktobe Jas(home) | 6-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Ekibastuz(home) | 3-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Tobol 2 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Kaspij Aktau 2 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2 2-1 Tobol 2 | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Tobol 2 on Jun 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tobol 2 score 1.9 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Kaspij Aktau 2 score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobol 2 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Kaspij Aktau 2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 4 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tobol 2 sit 14th in 1. Division (10 points from 19 matches) and Kaspij Aktau 2 sit 9th (25 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kaspij Aktau 2 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 25 |
| 14 | Tobol 2 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 52 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tobol 2 vs Kaspij Aktau 2?
- The Footlab model makes Kaspij Aktau 2 the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Tobol 2.
- Where and when is Tobol 2 vs Kaspij Aktau 2 played?
- Tobol 2 vs Kaspij Aktau 2 is played on September 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC), in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.