Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 23Kick-off on September 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadion Shakhter, Karaganda
The Footlab model makes Shakhter Karagandy the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 6% for Taraz. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz?
Shakhter Karagandy starts as the favourite with a 229-point Elo edge (1,548 vs 1,319).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shakhter Karagandy have 14 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Taraz have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Astana II(home) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Aktobe Jas(away) | 6-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Tobol 2(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arys(home) | 4-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Arys(away) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Turan Turkistan(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Jaiyq(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Akademiya Ontustik(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Yelimay Semey 2(away) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Shakhter Karagandy win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Taraz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Taraz 0-2 Shakhter Karagandy | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Shakhter Karagandy 2-0 Taraz | 1. Division |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Taraz 4-0 Shakhter Karagandy | 1. Division |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Shakhter Karagandy 1-0 Taraz | Premier League |
| Aug 31, 2022 | Taraz 1-1 Shakhter Karagandy | Cup |
| Apr 17, 2022 | Taraz 2-1 Shakhter Karagandy | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Taraz vs Shakhter Karagandy on Jun 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shakhter Karagandy score 2.8 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Taraz score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhter Karagandy | 2.8 | 0.5 | 11 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Taraz | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shakhter Karagandy sit 1st in 1. Division (52 points from 19 matches) and Taraz sit 8th (25 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 19 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 55 | 7 | 52 |
| 8 | Taraz | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhter Karagandy the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 6% for Taraz.
- Where and when is Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz played?
- Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz is played on September 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadion Shakhter, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.