Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Atlanta United FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire?
Chicago Fire starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,842 vs 1,698).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlanta United FC have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Chicago Fire have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 1-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portland Timbers(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Atlanta United FC win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Chicago Fire win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Chicago Fire 1-0 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Atlanta United FC 2-2 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| May 10, 2025 | Chicago Fire 2-1 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Chicago Fire 0-0 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Atlanta United FC 3-0 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| May 21, 2023 | Chicago Fire 3-3 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Chicago Fire vs Atlanta United FC on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlanta United FC score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Chicago Fire score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Chicago Fire | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlanta United FC sit 12th in Major League Soccer (21 points from 21 matches) and Chicago Fire sit 3rd (36 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 36 |
| 12 | Atlanta United FC | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 36 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire?
- The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Atlanta United FC.
- Where and when is Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire played?
- Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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