Where and when is Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC played?

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC is played on September 26, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

Atlanta United FC

New York City FC

The Footlab model makes Atlanta United FC the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for New York City FC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?

A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Atlanta United FC (1,695) and New York City FC (1,793).

Atlanta United FC win40 %

Draw26 %

New York City FC win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlanta United FC have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; New York City FC have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atlanta United FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 20, 2026	Minnesota United FC(away)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	New York Red Bulls(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 1, 2026	Philadelphia Union(away)	2-3	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	New England Revolution(away)	1-4	Major League Soccer
Jul 23, 2026	Charlotte(away)	2-2	Major League Soccer

New York City FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	FC Cincinnati(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer
Aug 16, 2026	Philadelphia Union(home)	2-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 13, 2026	Necaxa(home)	1-2	Leagues Cup
Aug 9, 2026	Cruz Azul(away)	1-2	Leagues Cup
Aug 6, 2026	Santos Laguna(home)	2-0	Leagues Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Atlanta United FC win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 New York City FC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jun 12, 2025	New York City FC 4-0 Atlanta United FC	Major League Soccer
Mar 29, 2025	Atlanta United FC 4-3 New York City FC	Major League Soccer
Jul 17, 2024	Atlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FC	Major League Soccer
Apr 6, 2024	New York City FC 1-1 Atlanta United FC	Major League Soccer
Jun 21, 2023	Atlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FC	Major League Soccer
Apr 8, 2023	New York City FC 1-1 Atlanta United FC	Major League Soccer

Last archived meeting: New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC on Jun 12, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Atlanta United FC score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; New York City FC score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Atlanta United FC	1.3	1.8	1	11/15	10/15
New York City FC	1.5	1.3	3	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atlanta United FC sit 15th in Major League Soccer (18 points from 20 matches) and New York City FC sit 7th (26 points from 20 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	New York City FC	20	7	5	8	34	29	26
15	Atlanta United FC	20	5	3	12	23	35	18

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?: The Footlab model makes Atlanta United FC the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for New York City FC.
Where and when is Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC played?: Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC is played on September 26, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.