Charlotte vs Chicago Fire: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
The Footlab model makes Charlotte the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Chicago Fire. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Charlotte (1,816) and Chicago Fire (1,851).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Charlotte have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Chicago Fire have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | DC United(home) | 3-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Toronto FC(away) | 3-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Columbus Crew(home) | 3-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CF Pachuca(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Atlas(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portland Timbers(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Charlotte win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Chicago Fire win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chicago Fire 2-1 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Chicago Fire 3-2 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| May 17, 2025 | Charlotte 1-4 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Charlotte 4-3 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| May 16, 2024 | Chicago Fire 0-1 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Chicago Fire 0-2 Charlotte | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Chicago Fire vs Charlotte on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Charlotte score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chicago Fire score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Chicago Fire | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Charlotte sit 5th in Major League Soccer (32 points from 21 matches) and Chicago Fire sit 3rd (36 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 36 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 32 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire?
- The Footlab model makes Charlotte the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Chicago Fire.
- Where and when is Charlotte vs Chicago Fire played?
- Charlotte vs Chicago Fire is played on September 26, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Bank of America Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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