Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
The Footlab model makes Seattle Sounders the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Minnesota United FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Seattle Sounders (1,799) and Minnesota United FC (1,790).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Seattle Sounders have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Minnesota United FC have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Austin(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Club Queretaro(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(away) | 5-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Seattle Sounders win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Minnesota United FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Minnesota United FC 0-0 Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Minnesota United FC 3-3 Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Seattle Sounders 4-2 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Minnesota United FC 0-0 Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Minnesota United FC 1-0 Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Seattle Sounders 2-3 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Minnesota United FC vs Seattle Sounders on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Seattle Sounders score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Minnesota United FC score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Minnesota United FC | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Seattle Sounders sit 13th in Major League Soccer (25 points from 20 matches) and Minnesota United FC sit 10th (28 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 29 | 28 |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 27 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC?
- The Footlab model makes Seattle Sounders the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Minnesota United FC.
- Where and when is Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC played?
- Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United FC is played on September 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Lumen Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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