Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, Texas
The Footlab model makes Houston Dynamo the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Sporting Kansas City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?
Houston Dynamo starts as the favourite with a 233-point Elo edge (1,837 vs 1,604).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Houston Dynamo have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Sporting Kansas City have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | St. Louis City(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 8, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 2-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City(away) | 2-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Colorado Rapids(away) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 0-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Houston Dynamo win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Sporting Kansas City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City 0-2 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Sporting Kansas City 0-0 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Houston Dynamo 1-3 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| May 12, 2024 | Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Houston Dynamo 1-1 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| Nov 27, 2023 | Houston Dynamo 1-0 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Houston Dynamo score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Kansas City score 0.9 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 1.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Houston Dynamo sit 2nd in Major League Soccer (38 points from 21 matches) and Sporting Kansas City sit 15th (15 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 38 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?
- The Footlab model makes Houston Dynamo the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Sporting Kansas City.
- Where and when is Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City played?
- Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City is played on September 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Shell Energy Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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