Atlètic Lleida vs Vilassar Mar: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Camp de futbol Ramon Farrús, Lleida
The Footlab model makes Atlètic Lleida the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Vilassar Mar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlètic Lleida vs Vilassar Mar?
Atlètic Lleida starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,803 vs 1,688).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlètic Lleida have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Vilassar Mar have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Manresa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Reddis(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barbastro(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Andratx(away) | 0-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barcelona B(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Grama(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 3, 2026 | Tona(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Lleida Esportiu(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vilanova(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | L'Escala(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Atlètic Lleida win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Vilassar Mar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Atlètic Lleida 2-0 Vilassar Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Vilassar Mar 2-2 Atlètic Lleida | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Atlètic Lleida vs Vilassar Mar on Apr 27, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Atlètic Lleida score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Vilassar Mar score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlètic Lleida | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Vilassar Mar | 0.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vilassar Mar | 34 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 36 | 38 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlètic Lleida vs Vilassar Mar?
- The Footlab model makes Atlètic Lleida the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Vilassar Mar.
- Where and when is Atlètic Lleida vs Vilassar Mar played?
- Atlètic Lleida vs Vilassar Mar is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Camp de futbol Ramon Farrús, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.