Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 18Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 81%, against 14% for a draw and 5% for Deportivo Pereira. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?
Atletico Nacional starts as the favourite with a 297-point Elo edge (1,912 vs 1,614).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Nacional have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Deportivo Pereira have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 2-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | America de Cali(away) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jaguares(away) | 3-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tigres FC(home) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar(away) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Llaneros(away) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| May 26, 2026 | Jaguares(home) | 1-0 | Copa Colombia |
| May 21, 2026 | Águilas Doradas(away) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico Nacional win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Deportivo Pereira win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Deportivo Pereira 1-0 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Deportivo Pereira 2-1 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Deportivo Pereira 1-1 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Apr 18, 2024 | Atletico Nacional 0-1 Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| Nov 2, 2023 | Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportivo Pereira | Copa Colombia |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Nacional on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Nacional score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Pereira score 0.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 1.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Deportivo Pereira | 0.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Nacional sit 1st in Primera A (40 points from 19 matches) and Deportivo Pereira sit 20th (10 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | 40 |
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 25 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 21 | 55 |
| 11 | Atletico Nacional | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 32 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 32 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 81%, against 14% for a draw and 5% for Deportivo Pereira.
- Where and when is Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira played?
- Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.