Where and when is Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin played?

Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Cota, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 18Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Cota, Cota

Fortaleza FC

Independiente Medellin

The Footlab model makes Fortaleza FC the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Independiente Medellin. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin?

Independiente Medellin starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (1,817 vs 1,677).

Fortaleza FC win38 %

Draw30 %

Independiente Medellin win32 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortaleza FC have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Independiente Medellin have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fortaleza FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Atletico Nacional(home)	1-2	Primera A
Aug 8, 2026	Cucuta(home)	2-0	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Llaneros(away)	1-3	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo Pereira(home)	0-0	Primera A
Jul 26, 2026	Alianza Valledupar(away)	1-1	Primera A

Independiente Medellin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Cucuta(home)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Deportes Tolima(away)	3-2	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo Cali(home)	1-0	Primera A
Jul 29, 2026	Vasco DA Gama(away)	0-1	CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Jul 25, 2026	Deportivo Pasto(home)	3-2	Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Fortaleza FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Independiente Medellin win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 11, 2026	Independiente Medellin 1-0 Fortaleza FC	Copa Colombia
Apr 26, 2026	Independiente Medellin 1-0 Fortaleza FC	Primera A
Oct 17, 2025	Independiente Medellin 3-1 Fortaleza FC	Primera A
Sep 4, 2025	Independiente Medellin 2-1 Fortaleza FC	Copa Colombia
Aug 27, 2025	Fortaleza FC 0-0 Independiente Medellin	Copa Colombia
Apr 27, 2025	Fortaleza FC 0-0 Independiente Medellin	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC on May 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Fortaleza FC score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Independiente Medellin score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Fortaleza FC	1.2	1.1	4	9/15	6/15
Independiente Medellin	1.3	1.1	4	8/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fortaleza FC sit 15th in Primera A (22 points from 19 matches) and Independiente Medellin sit 11th (26 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Independiente Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
13	Fortaleza FC	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22	27	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22	27	22

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin?: The Footlab model makes Fortaleza FC the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Independiente Medellin.
Where and when is Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin played?: Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Cota, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.