Sao Paulo vs Corinthians: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 34Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab AI model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Corinthians. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sao Paulo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Sao Paulo (1,815) and Corinthians (1,813).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sao Paulo
3-4-3- 37Artur
- 16D. Bobadilla
- 9J. Calleri
- 8Marcos Antônio
- 32Pedro Lima
- 29Pablo Maia
- 18Wendell
- 5R. Arboleda
- 2R. Tolói
- 35Sabino
- 31Carlos Coronel
Corinthians
4-2-3-1- 9Yuri Alberto
- 37Kaio César
- 8R. Garro
- 7Breno
- 10M. Depay
- 14Raniele
- 13Gustavo Henrique
- 21Matheus Bidu
- 2Matheuzinho
- 3Gabriel Paulista
- 1Hugo Souza
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sao Paulo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Corinthians have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Santos(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Boca Juniors(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Internacional(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sao Paulo wins, 1 draw, 2 Corinthians wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Corinthians 3-2 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Corinthians 1-1 Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Corinthians 3-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Sao Paulo 2-0 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Sao Paulo 3-1 Corinthians | Paulista - A1 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Sao Paulo 3-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Corinthians vs Sao Paulo on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sao Paulo score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Corinthians score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Corinthians | 0.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sao Paulo sit 11th in Serie A (36 points from 29 matches) and Corinthians sit 16th (32 points from 29 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 34 | 36 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 34 | 32 |
A question about Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Corinthians.
- Where and when is Sao Paulo vs Corinthians played?
- Sao Paulo vs Corinthians is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.