Botafogo vs Atletico-MG: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 34Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Botafogo the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Atletico-MG. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Botafogo (1,952) and Atletico-MG (1,985).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botafogo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Atletico-MG have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 1-6 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Internacional(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Botafogo win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Atletico-MG win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Atletico-MG 1-1 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Atletico-MG 1-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Atletico-MG 1-3 Botafogo | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Atletico-MG 0-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Jul 7, 2024 | Botafogo 3-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Atletico-MG vs Botafogo on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botafogo score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico-MG score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Atletico-MG | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botafogo sit 11th in Serie A (30 points from 22 matches) and Atletico-MG sit 8th (33 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 33 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
- The Footlab model makes Botafogo the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Atletico-MG.
- Where and when is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG played?
- Botafogo vs Atletico-MG is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nilton Santos, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.