Flamengo vs Gremio: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 34Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Flamengo the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Gremio. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flamengo vs Gremio?
Flamengo starts as the favourite with a 236-point Elo edge (2,025 vs 1,789).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Flamengo vs Gremio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Flamengo
4-2-3-1- 9Pedro
- 15J. Carrascal
- 16Samuel Lino
- 5E. Pulgar
- 11Lucas Paquetá
- 21Jorginho
- 4Léo Pereira
- 3Léo Ortiz
- 26Alex Sandro
- 2G. Varela
- 1A. Rossi
Known absences
G. de ArrascaetaOut · Muscle injury
Gremio
4-1-4-1- 95Carlos Vinícius
- 20M. Villasanti
- 7C. Pavón
- 9F. Amuzu
- 15Danilo Barbosa
- 10F. Krovinović
- 82Wallace
- 4W. Kannemann
- 27Diego Caito
- 23Marlon
- 1Weverton
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flamengo have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Gremio have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Remo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Flamengo wins, 1 draw, 2 Gremio wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Gremio 0-1 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Flamengo 1-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Gremio 0-2 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Gremio 3-2 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Jun 13, 2024 | Flamengo 2-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2023 | Gremio 3-2 Flamengo | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Flamengo score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gremio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Gremio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Flamengo sit 1st in Serie A (64 points from 30 matches) and Gremio sit 18th (31 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 25 | 64 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 40 | 31 |
A question about Flamengo vs Gremio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flamengo vs Gremio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Flamengo the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Gremio.
- Where and when is Flamengo vs Gremio played?
- Flamengo vs Gremio is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.