Cruzeiro vs Bahia: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 34Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Bahia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Cruzeiro (2,038) and Bahia (1,960).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruzeiro have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Bahia have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Cruzeiro win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Bahia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Jun 23, 2024 | Bahia 4-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Cruzeiro score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bahia score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.5 | 0.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Bahia | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cruzeiro sit 5th in Serie A (39 points from 24 matches) and Bahia sit 6th (37 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
- The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Bahia.
- Where and when is Cruzeiro vs Bahia played?
- Cruzeiro vs Bahia is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.