Cruzeiro vs Bahia: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 34Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab AI model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Bahia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cruzeiro wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,732 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
On Elo ratings, Cruzeiro has 1,921 points and Bahia 1,898.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cruzeiro vs Bahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1- 19Kaio Jorge
- 10Matheus Pereira
- 8Gerson
- 99K. Arroyo
- 38Felipe Morais
- 5Zé Lucas
- 43João Marcelo
- 27G. Rojas
- 34Jonathan
- 12William
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa
Bahia
4-3-3- 9A. Véliz
- 16Erick Pulga
- 99C. Olivera
- 11Rodrigo Nestor
- 6Jean Lucas
- 5N. Acevedo
- 46Luciano Juba
- 33David Duarte
- 44Marcos Victor
- 4Kanu
- 1Ronaldo
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 04:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruzeiro have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Bahia have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 2-4 | Serie A |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santos(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Cruzeiro wins, 1 draw, 1 Bahia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Jun 23, 2024 | Bahia 4-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Cruzeiro score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bahia score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Bahia | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cruzeiro sit 7th in Serie A (48 points from 30 matches) and Bahia sit 6th (49 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 36 | 49 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 48 |
A question about Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Bahia.
- Where and when is Cruzeiro vs Bahia played?
- Cruzeiro vs Bahia is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.