Derio vs Durango: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, Derio
The Footlab model makes Derio the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Durango. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derio vs Durango?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Derio (1,781) and Durango (1,736).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derio have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Durango have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 24, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derio win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Durango win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Derio 4-0 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Durango 1-0 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Derio 2-2 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Durango 1-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Durango 0-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Derio 0-1 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Derio score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derio | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derio sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (58 points from 34 matches) and Durango sit 11th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 40 | 58 |
| 11 | Durango | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 35 | 36 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derio vs Durango?
- The Footlab model makes Derio the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Durango.
- Where and when is Derio vs Durango played?
- Derio vs Durango is played on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.