Australia vs Tajikistan: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on January 19, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)CommBank Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab model makes Australia the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Tajikistan. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Australia vs Tajikistan?
Australia starts as the favourite with a 245-point Elo edge (1,764 vs 1,519).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Australia have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Tajikistan have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Paraguay(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 19, 2026 | USA(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Türkiye(home) | 2-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Switzerland(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | India(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | India(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Philippines(home) | 1-1 | Asian Cup - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Timor-Leste(away) | 5-0 | Asian Cup - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Maldives(away) | 3-0 | Asian Cup - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Australia win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Tajikistan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2016 | Australia 7-0 Tajikistan | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Sep 8, 2015 | Tajikistan 0-3 Australia | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
Last archived meeting: Australia vs Tajikistan on Mar 24, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Australia score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tajikistan score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 1.2 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Tajikistan | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tajikistan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Australia vs Tajikistan?
- The Footlab model makes Australia the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Tajikistan.
- Where and when is Australia vs Tajikistan played?
- Australia vs Tajikistan is played on January 19, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at CommBank Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.