Australia vs Tajikistan: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on January 19, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)CommBank Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab AI model makes Australia the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Tajikistan. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Australia vs Tajikistan?
Australia starts as the favourite with a 243-point Elo edge (1,754 vs 1,511).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Australia vs Tajikistan
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Australia
5-4-1- 26T. Yengi
- 17N. Irankunda
- 8C. Metcalfe
- 22J. Irvine
- 24Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler
- 3A. Circati
- 19H. Souttar
- 25L. Herrington
- 16A. Behich
- 4J. Italiano
- 18P. Beach
Tajikistan
4-1-4-1- 14S. Boboev
- 7P. Umarbayev
- 15S. Mabatshoev
- 8A. Dzhuraboev
- 10A. Dzhalilov
- 17E. Panjshanbe
- 3T. Islomov
- 6V. Khanonov
- 20A. Karomatullozoda
- 2Z. Dzhuraboev
- 1R. Yatimov
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:54 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Australia have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Tajikistan have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Brazil(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Brazil(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Egypt(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Paraguay(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 19, 2026 | USA(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | China(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Palestine(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 9, 2026 | India(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | India(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Australia wins, 0 draws, 0 Tajikistan wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2016 | Australia 7-0 Tajikistan | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Sep 8, 2015 | Tajikistan 0-3 Australia | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
Last archived meeting: Australia vs Tajikistan on Mar 24, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Australia score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Tajikistan score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 1.2 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Tajikistan | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tajikistan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 14 |
A question about Australia vs Tajikistan?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Australia vs Tajikistan?
- The Footlab AI model makes Australia the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Tajikistan.
- Where and when is Australia vs Tajikistan played?
- Australia vs Tajikistan is played on January 19, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at CommBank Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.