Uzbekistan vs Bahrain: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on January 18, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Milliy Stadium, Tashkent
The Footlab model makes Uzbekistan the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Bahrain. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Uzbekistan vs Bahrain?
Uzbekistan starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,709 vs 1,536).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Uzbekistan have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Bahrain have 2, 1 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Congo DR(away) | 1-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Portugal(away) | 0-5 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Colombia(home) | 1-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Canada(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Georgia(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Sudan(home) | 3-1 | Arab Cup |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Algeria(home) | 1-5 | Arab Cup |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Iraq(away) | 1-2 | Arab Cup |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Djibouti(home) | 1-0 | Arab Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Uzbekistan win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Bahrain win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2016 | Uzbekistan 1-0 Bahrain | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Oct 8, 2015 | Bahrain 0-4 Uzbekistan | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
Last archived meeting: Uzbekistan vs Bahrain on Mar 29, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Uzbekistan score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Bahrain score 0.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uzbekistan | 1.5 | 1.5 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Bahrain | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Uzbekistan vs Bahrain?
- The Footlab model makes Uzbekistan the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Bahrain.
- Where and when is Uzbekistan vs Bahrain played?
- Uzbekistan vs Bahrain is played on January 18, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Milliy Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.