Japan vs Qatar: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on January 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Saitama Stadium 2002, Saitama
The Footlab AI model makes Japan the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Qatar. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Japan vs Qatar?
Japan starts as the favourite with a 267-point Elo edge (1,854 vs 1,588).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Japan vs Qatar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Japan
3-4-2-1- 18A. Ueda
- 10R. Dōan
- 24K. Sano
- 20T. Kubo
- 15D. Kamada
- 11D. Maeda
- 13Keito Nakamura
- 3A. Seko
- 21H. Ito
- 25J. Suzuki
- 1Z. Suzuki
Qatar
4-3-3- 19Almoez Ali
- 11Akram Afif
- 9Y. Abdurisag
- 20Ahmed Fathi
- 12Karim Boudiaf
- 23Assim Madibo
- 2Pedro Miguel
- 13Ayoub Al Oui
- 14Homam Ahmed
- 16Boualem Khoukhi
- 1Mahmud Abunada
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:31 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Japan have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Qatar have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | New Zealand(home) | 2-1 | Kirin Cup |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Ecuador(home) | 0-0 | Kirin Cup |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Venezuela(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Uruguay(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Brazil(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(away) | 0-0 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 30, 2026 | United Arab Emirates(away) | 1-1 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Yemen(away) | 1-0 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Bahrain(home) | 2-0 | Gulf Cup of Nations |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 1-3 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Japan win, 0 draws, 1 Qatar win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2019 | Japan 1-3 Qatar | Asian Cup |
| Jan 21, 2011 | Japan 3-2 Qatar | Asian Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Japan score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Qatar score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 1.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Qatar | 0.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Japan vs Qatar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Japan vs Qatar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Japan the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Qatar.
- Where and when is Japan vs Qatar played?
- Japan vs Qatar is played on January 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Saitama Stadium 2002, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.