Avai vs Ceara: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Florianópolis, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Avai the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Ceara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avai vs Ceara?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Avai (1,837) and Ceara (1,849).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avai have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Ceara have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Nautico Recife(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 4-3 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Avai win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Ceara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Ceara 2-1 Avai | Serie B |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Ceara 2-0 Avai | Serie B |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Avai 0-1 Ceara | Serie B |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Avai 1-0 Ceara | Serie B |
| Jun 28, 2023 | Ceara 0-0 Avai | Serie B |
| Nov 8, 2022 | Avai 2-0 Ceara | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Avai score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ceara score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avai | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ceara | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avai sit 16th in Serie B (29 points from 24 matches) and Ceara sit 17th (28 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Avai | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | 29 |
| 17 | Ceara | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 30 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avai vs Ceara?
- The Footlab model makes Avai the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Ceara.
- Where and when is Avai vs Ceara played?
- Avai vs Ceara is played on October 3, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.